Leading up to the Grammy nominations on Nov. 7, Rolling Stone is breaking down 10 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will (and who should) win on Grammy night.
A fictional band, a Puerto Rican superstar, and a popstar who rhymes “amen” with “hey men.” Our predictions for Song of the Year vary wildly, but if there’s one thing we know about the Grammys, it’s that they like to keep us on our toes — specifically when it comes to this category. The eight songs we’ve chosen dominated charts, garnered new fans, and are likely to take home the big win.
“The talent on display is next level,” says Alex Tear, SiriusXM’s Vice President of Music Programming. “World-class songwriting, powerful storytelling, and real energy that’s connecting with their respective audiences. They’ve all put in the grind — and delivered. Everybody, including myself, can sit on the side and say certain things and judge, but every single artist here has a piece of art that has done well, and they should be super proud.”
Song of the Year – Our Predictions
Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”
Gracie Abrams, “That’s So True”
Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra”
Kendrick Lamar, “Luther”
Chappell Roan, “The Subway”
Bad Bunny, “Baile Inolvidable”
Huntr/x, “Golden”
Alex Warren, “Ordinary”
Who Will Win?
Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”
Sabrina Carpenter’s “Manchild,” released off her new album Man’s Best Friend, debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100. “It’s easily my favorite song we’ve ever done together,” her producer Jack Antonoff told us in her recent Rolling Stone cover story. Carpenter has two Grammy wins under her belt, but not in this category — “Please Please Please” lost to Lamar’s “Not Like Us” last year. Her finally winning Song of the Year for this disco rodeo jam seems like a no-brainer. (Or, basically: “Why so sexy if so dumb?”)
“Sabrina has had an incredible year,” says Larry Calderon Jr., the program director for Y100.7 in Miami. “Hitting that Number One hot debut, and Jack Antonoff continuing to produce so many bangers for her. It’s really sharp lyricism that we got there. For me, she’s really one of the front-runners.”
“I’m so personally proud of her, because it’s been a mission,” Tear says. “It hasn’t been an overnight success. She’s been grinding for a long time, well over a decade, so it’s well deserved, and I’m super happy for her.”
Who Should Win?
Gracie Abrams, “That’s So True”
While Carpenter and Chappell Roan (for her lovesick stunner “The Subway”) are likely to score in this category, it would be incredible to see Gracie Abrams win her first-ever Grammy — especially for the highly addictive rollercoaster ride that is “That’s So True.” Co-written with Audrey Hobert and released off The Secret of Us (Deluxe), it marks Abrams’ first Top 10 hit. She’s already been nominated for two Grammys. She deserves to take one home.
“She was touring with Taylor Swift and getting co-signed,” Tear says. “One of the most impressive things I think about Gracie is her sincerity in songwriting. She’s a storyteller. Her audience and her fans are dialing into her, and experiencing things that she’s experiencing. I can’t wait to hear what’s next from Gracie, but she’s definitely deserving of being recognized by the Academy this year.”
Forecasting the Field
Gaga has been nominated in the category four times and has yet to win, so her taking this home for the Mayhem highlight “Abracadabra” would be a massive victory for the singer. “I believe her to be a front-runner,” says Tear. “She does great work, she’s been doing it for a long time. She continues to deliver air-defining music. She’s modernized her signature sound, going back to her core feels.”
It’s also important not to overlook massive hits like Huntr/x’s “Golden” (from Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters), Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s “Luther,” and Alex Warren’s “Ordinary.” The latter spent 10 weeks at No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100. “It’s an anthem that transformed him from a viral creator into a bona fide pop singer-songwriter,” Tear says. “He’s so personable as well. That’s one kid who, if he goes up on stage and receives this, I would love to see his authentic and sincere reaction.”
Then again, we wouldn’t be surprised if Bad Bunny took this award home, for the Debí Tirar Más Fotos highlight “Baile Inolvidable.” 2026 is already shaping up to be The Year of Bad Bunny, with a headlining slot at the Super Bowl LX halftime show and a world tour in the works. Winning this Grammy award — or several, for that matter — would be historic. “I think Bad Bunny is going to be a surprise factor for the Grammys,” says Calderon Jr. “He has been able to cross over so flawlessly, in a way that no other artist on the Latin side has been able to do. His energy and just his artistry is so great.”
